The JPMorgan Chase Institute recently released the Local Consumer Commerce Index (LCCI), a new measure of the year-over-year growth rate of Chase debit and credit card spending1. The LCCI captures point-of-purchase data to provide a local snapshot of consumer spending in 15 cities and their surrounding metro areas. To date, the LCCI has analyzed consumer spending data from October 2013 through December 2015.
- Consumer spending across the Chicago metro area increased by 1.32% from December 2014 to December 2015, led by a +2.58% increase in spending in the city of Chicago.
- Spending at small businesses throughout the region increased by 7.05%, while spending at medium and large businesses declined by a respective -0.85% and -0.70%. It is not clear whether a share of the growth is a function of increased access to and/or use of debit and credit card readers.
- The Chicago region’s consumer spending growth is attributed to increased local spending on nondurable goods – such as apparel, food, medical commodities, and recreational goods – and restaurants.
Illustrated in the following chart, year-over-year growth in consumer spending has been driven by increased spending at small businesses for the last 11 consecutive months.
1 The Local Consumer Commerce Index captures 32 percent of actual retail sales transactions nationwide. It classifies business size based on market share calculated from transaction data. Any business exceeding 8 percent market share in its CBSA and product category is classified as large. Calculated market share is matched to Census Statistics of U.S. Businesses data on total market size to estimate revenues for each business, and estimated revenues are compared to Small Business Administration size standards to determine whether a business is likely to be eligible for assistance from the SBA, and businesses under the threshold are classified as small. The remaining businesses are classified as medium-sized.
2 Compared to an average of 23% across the 15 metro areas surveyed.
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