The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has released November 2011 figures for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), a measure of how the national economy is faring relative to its historical trend rate. In November, two of the four economic indicator categories improved, causing the overall CFNAI to decrease to -0.37, from -0.11 in October.
Illustrated in the following chart, the three-month moving average remained level, at -0.24, from October to November. (When the CFNAI-MA3 moves above -0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended; surpassing a level of +0.20 indicates economic activity associated with sustained recovery).
Note: Based on data available as of 12/20/11. At that time, November data for 49 of the 85 indicators had been published; for all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index and CFNAI-MA3. Shading indicates NBER-declared end of recession (June 2009).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Of the 85 indicators that contribute to the index (production/income, sales/orders/inventories, employment/unemployment/hours, and personal consumption/housing):
• 31 improved from October to November, while 54 deteriorated; 34 made positive contributions, while 51 made negative contributions.
• Employment-related indicators made a positive contribution of +0.14 to the index, up from +0.01 in October.
• Production-related indicators made a negative contribution of -0.23 to the index, a steep decline from +0.16 in October.
• Sales-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the index, down from +0.01 in October.
• Personal consumption/housing made a negative contribution (-0.29), but increased slightly from October (-0.30).
Please note: The October monthly index was revised to -0.11 from an initial estimate of -0.13. This revision was due to revisions in previously published data used to calculate the October index. The full news release can be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago website.
