View the Chicagoland Economic Dashboard October 2026 edition here! • October 2026
Chicagoland’s economy: What to know in October 2026
Trending Upwards: Chicagoland's output is projected by Moody's Analytics to reach $1.0 trillion in Q4 2026, up 0.8% from Q3. This is the first time projections have crossed the $1 trillion mark. Active job postings rebounded 10% between August and September 2026 to roughly 241,000, reversing several months of declines, and every county saw an increase. Management occupations had the most unique postings (32,041), while Transportation and Material Moving had the strongest growth (+16%). (See more about skills in demand in Chicagoland in the Research Center's recent research brief.) The Chicago Business Barometer jumped 11.7 points to 58.8 in September. That puts it back in expansionary territory and at its highest level since May.
Trending the Same: The number of businesses grew a modest 0.4% to 255,554 in Q1 2026. Projected Q4 employment across key industries is largely flat, with quarterly changes of 0.3% or less. There have been 143 Pro-Chicagoland Decisions so far in 2026, slightly below this time last year. Chicagoland now ranks 17th among major U.S. metros for new residential permits, up from 18th last month, though year-to-date permits are down 6.5% from 2025.
Trending Downwards: Chicago MSA employment fell 1.3% from July to August 2026, to approximately 4.66 million jobs, with declines in every county. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, up 0.3 pp from July and 0.7 pp from a year ago. That means roughly 14,400 more unemployed people than last month and 28,700 more than a year ago.
U.S. Macroeconomic Update:
The U.S. economy added +29,000 jobs in September, well below the 45,000 average monthly gain over the prior year and below the Dow Jones consensus of 84,000, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, though largely due to an influx of members in the labor force. The labor force swelled by 485,000 and the participation rate increased 0.2 percentage point to 61.8%, its highest since May. Health care led gains, but added 17,000 jobs in September, around half of its 33,000 monthly average over the prior year, while nursing and residential care facilities lost 9,000 jobs. Construction gained 11,000 and manufacturing increased by 9,000, while financial activities lost 7,000. Revisions subtracted a combined 60,000 jobs from July and August, with August revised down to 133,000 from 162,000, and July from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 decline.
On September 16, the FOMC voted to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75%–4%. It was the first rate hike since July 2023. The 12-0 vote stood in sharp contrast to July, when only three regional Fed presidents favored a hike. Chair Warsh framed the move as removing "a dose of accommodation," citing a strengthening economy, ongoing geopolitical risks, and insufficient progress on inflation. On inflation, August CPI was firm: headline CPI increased 3.4% from year-ago levels, the same rate as in July, while core CPI rose 2.4%, down from July's 2.5%, though the 0.3% monthly core gain beat expectations, and gasoline rose 3.9% in August and was up 27.4% year over year. The Fed's preferred gauge came in cooler: August PCE rose 3.4% on headline and 3% for core, both well below estimates of 3.7% and 3.3%.
Chicagoland’s economy: Key macroeconomic metrics
Output: Chicagoland’s output for Q4 2026 was projected by Moody’s Analytics to be $1.022 trillion, up 0.8% from Q3 2026. All four of the comparison metro areas are also projected to experience a modest increase in output over the previous quarter. This is the first time output projections are over $1T for the Chicago metro area.
Employment: According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment for the Chicago metro area decreased by 1.3% to 4.66 million from July 2026. Only LA saw a similar decline in employment. Employment also decreased in all counties between July and August 2026.
Unemployment: Chicagoland’s unemployment rate in August 2026 increased to 5.2%, with similar patterns seen among most regional counties. The unemployment rate in the Chicago metro is higher than LA and NYC. There are ~14,400 more unemployed people in August than there were last month, and ~28,700 more unemployed people than this time last year.
Job Postings: Chicagoland saw 10% increase in active job postings between August and September 2026, to roughly 240,000 – reversing a trend of job posting decreases in previous months. Job postings increased across all counties. (See more about skills in demand in Chicagoland in the Research Center’s recent research brief)
Pro-Chicagoland Decisions: : In 2026 thus far, there have been 143 Pro-Chicagoland decisions which is slightly below where we were this time last year. This includes 105 expansions and 38 relocations/new market entrants. Of these projects, 83 are regional investments and 60 involve projects within city limits – including 11 South/West Side investments. PCDs are confirmed expansions, relocations, or new market entrants with at least 10 jobs or 10K square feet.
Chicagoland’s economy: Other notable updates
Trade: O’Hare International Airport handled $36.0 billion in trade in July 2026, down $3.4 billion from June 2026. O’Hare was the #2 port by value in July 2026 following Port of Laredo with $36.9 billion in trade for July 2026.
ISM Business Barometer: The Business Barometer – a survey of supply chain professionals in the Chicagoland area rebounded 11.7 points to 58.8 in September. The Barometer is back in expansionary territory after one month below the neutral 50 mark and is now at its highest since May. The rise was driven by increases in Production, New Orders, Supplier Deliveries and Order Backlogs. A decline in Employment provided some offset. Read report for full details here.
In September, the Business Barometer asked: “What are your organization’s hiring intentions for procurement and supply chain professionals over the next 6-12 months” Responses were: 62% “Maintain current staffing levels,” 12% “Increase hiring moderately”, 8% ”Reduce headcount,” 8% “Uncertain at this time” 4% “Reduce hiring/allow positions to attrit,” 4% “Other,” 4% “Increase hiring significantly.”