View the Chicagoland Economic Dashboard August 2026 edition here! • August 2026
Chicagoland’s economy: What to know in August 2026
Trending Upwards: Chicagoland’s economy continues to show signs of resilience. Output is projected to reach $993 billion in Q3 2026, up 1.2% QoQ. Employment for the Chicago metro area increased by 0.3% to 4.72 million in June 2026 from the previous month – compared metros all demonstrated a decline in employment. Healthcare continues to be a relative bright spot for venture capital investment. While active job postings in Chicagoland declined 2% between June and July 2026, the decline is less steep than between May and June 2026 (-5%). O’Hare continues to be the #1 port by value in the month of June.
Trending the Same: Chicagoland remains 17th for new residential housing permits authorized. Although July’s Chicago Business Barometer is just 0.9 points above where it was in June, it is still the third month in a row demonstrating expansionary activity. Similarly, the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions decreased 10 points in June, still suggesting economic growth was above trend.
Trending Downwards: While Chicago showed the strongest employment growth month-over-month among compared metros, it demonstrated the most employment loss year-over-year: -2.6% compared to June 2025. The unemployment rate increased by 0.4 percentage points between May and June, and remains the highest among the four compared metros. It remains 0.6 percentage points above June 2025. Growth capital investment has softened, with Chicagoland startups raising $741.5 million in Q2 2026, down 69% from a year ago (the Bay Area, by contrast, increased investment by 104%). (See more about H1 2026 growth capital funding in Chicagoland in the Research Center’s recent research brief) Building permits in the city of Chicago for new construction and renovations are about a quarter below where they were last year. Pro-Chicagoland Decisions are slightly below last year.
U.S. Macroeconomic Update:
The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, well below the average monthly gain of the prior 12 months (+34,000), and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Employment declined in local government (-57,000) and leisure and hospitality (-40,000), while health care continued to trend up (+22,000). Revisions subtracted a combined 103,000 jobs from May and June, with June's initial +57,000 print cut all the way down to +20,000.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29 in a divided 9-3 vote, with three dissenters favoring a hike, as Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Committee has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation." The decision followed a cooler-than-expected June CPI print (headline 3.5% y/y, down from 4.2%; core 2.6%, down from 2.9%) driven largely by falling gas prices, though the Fed's preferred PCE gauge remained stickier at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core — still well above the 2% target.
Real GDP grew at just a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026 (advance estimate), a marked deceleration from Q1's 2.1%, as gains in consumer spending and AI-related business investment were offset by a widening trade drag from higher imports. The Employment Cost Index showed compensation for civilian workers up 3.4% year-over-year, keeping wage growth running above the pace consistent with the Fed's inflation target.
Chicagoland’s economy: Key macroeconomic metrics
Output: Chicagoland’s output for Q3 2026 was projected by Moody’s Analytics to be $993 billion, up 1.2% from Q2 2026. All four of the comparison metro areas are also projected to experience a modest increase in output over the previous quarter.
Employment: According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment for the Chicago metro area increased by 0.3% to 4.72 million from May 2026. This is highest growth among the four comparison metros, which all saw a decline in employment. Employment increased modestly in Kane, Kendall, and Lake counties between May and June 2026.
Unemployment: Chicagoland’s unemployment rate in June 2026 rose to 5.3%, with similar patterns seen among most regional counties. Unemployment in the Chicago metro is still the highest among its peers. There are 25,736 more unemployed people in June than there were at this time last year.
Job Postings: Chicagoland saw 2% declining in active job postings between June and July 2026, to roughly 210,000 – although this is a less steep decline than between May and June 2026 (-5%). Job postings increased in the exurban collar counties – Will, Kendall, and McHenry Counties. The Public Administration (+11%), Information (+7%), and Finance & Insurance (+5) industries all demonstrated the most growth in job postings month-over-month, while Real Estate (-11%), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (-8%) and Administrative Services (-8%) demonstrated the most contraction.
Pro-Chicagoland Decisions: : In 2026 thus far, there have been 114 Pro-Chicagoland decisions which is slightly below where we were this time last year. This includes 82 expansions and 32 relocations/new market entrants. Of these projects, 59 are regional investments and 55 involve projects within city limits – including 11 South/West Side investments. PCDs are confirmed expansions, relocations, or new market entrants with at least 10 jobs or 10K square feet.
Chicagoland’s economy: Other notable updates
Growth Capital: Chicagoland startups raised $741.5 million in Q2 2026 across 130 deals, down 69% from Q2 2025. Healthcare led the quarter in capital raised, with 39% of disclosed capital raised across 23 deals, and AI & ML continues to be a defining theme, with 24 deals in that space. Top deals include Zarminali Pediatrics ($110M, Series A, healthcare services), Professional Women’s Hockey League ($100M, early stage VC, sports), and Loop ($95M, Series C, fintech). Several investors appeared across deals, including Illinois Ventures, Index Ventures, Hyde Park Venture Partners, GreatPoint Ventures, PEAK6 Strategic Capital, and Altitude Ventures. (See more about H1 2026 growth capital funding in Chicagoland in the Research Center’s recent brief)
Trade: O’Hare International Airport handled $39.4 billion in trade in June 2026, up $4.2 billion from May 2026 – +11.8%, a greater increase than compared ports. O’Hare was the #1 port by value in June 2026 (up from #2 in May 2026, after the Port of Laredo).
ISM Business Barometer: The Business Barometer – a survey of supply chain professionals in the Chicagoland area edged up 0.9 points to 57.6 in July. The Barometer remained in expansionary territory for a third consecutive month. The modest increase was driven by stronger New Orders, largely offset by weaker Supplier Deliveries, Order Backlogs, Employment and Production. Read report for full details here.
In July, the Business Barometer asked: “How do you expect to see your business activity change in the second half of 2026, by percent?” Responses were: 42% “1-5% growth,” 19% “5-10% growth”, 19% ”Unable to determine at this time,” 8% “Other,” 8% “Less than 1% growth,” 4% “Decline. ”