View the Chicagoland Economic Dashboard July 2026 edition here! • July 2026
Chicagoland’s economy: what to know in July 2026
Trending Upwards: Chicagoland’s economy continues to show signs of resilience. Output is projected to reach $991 billion in Q3 2026, up 1.0% QoQ. Employment for the Chicago metro area increased by 0.5% to 4.70 million in May 2026 from the previous month. Trade activity through O’Hare also rose to $33.9 billion in April 2026 from $31.9 billion in March 2026. Healthcare continues to be a relative bright spot for venture capital investment. The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions rose 7 points in June, suggesting economic growth was above trend.
Trending the Same: Unemployment remained at 4.9% in May 2026 compared to April 2026; Chicagoland remains 17th for new residential housing permits authorized. Although June’s Chicago Business Barometer is 6 points below where it was in May, it is still the second month in a row demonstrating expansionary activity.
Trending Downwards: The unemployment rate remains the highest among the four compared metros, and is 0.6 percentage points above May 2025. Active job postings in Chicagoland declined 5% between May and June 2026 but remained relatively stable at approximately 215,000. Growth capital investment has softened, with Chicagoland startups raising $741.5 million in Q2 2026, down 69% from a year ago (the Bay Area, by contrast, increased investment by 104%). Construction permits in the city of Chicago for new construction and renovations are about a quarter below where they were last year. ProChicagoland Decisions are slightly below last year.
U.S. Macroeconomic Update:
The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, roughly in line with the average monthly change over the prior 12 months (+36,000). In June, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care. Employment in leisure and hospitality declined.
Inflation accelerated in April, with headline CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March, while core CPI increased 2.8%, reflecting renewed price pressures from energy and other consumer categories. The Fed’s preferred PCE measure also remained elevated, with headline PCE inflation at 3.8% and core PCE at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, driven by strong private investment, including continued spending on AI-related infrastructure and equipment. The combination of resilient job growth and elevated inflation has reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts and increased attention on the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook.
Chicagoland’s economy: Key macroeconomic metrics
Output: Chicagoland’s output for Q3 2026 was projected by Moody’s Analytics to be $991 billion, up 1.0% from Q2 2026. All four of the comparison metro areas are also projected to experience a modest increase in output over the previous quarter.
Employment: According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment for the Chicago metro area increased by 0.5% to 4.70 million from April 2026. This is highest growth among the four comparison metros. New York and Houston experienced employment growth, while Los Angeles saw a decline in employment. Employment increased modestly in five counties between April and May 2026, while Kane and Kendall experienced declines.
Unemployment: Chicagoland’s unemployment rate in May 2026 remained 4.9%, with similar patterns seen among most regional counties. Unemployment in the Chicago metro is still the highest among its peers. There are 23,552 more unemployed people in May than there were at this time last year.
Job Postings: Chicagoland saw 5% declining in active job postings between May and June 2026, staying around 216,000. Job postings decreased across the city of Chicago and all seven collar counties. Military-only occupations (8%) and Transportation and Material Moving occupations (5%) were the only two occupational groups to experience growth in job postings in Chicagoland.
Pro-Chicagoland Decisions: In 2026 thus far, there have been 97 Pro-Chicagoland decisions which is slightly below where we were this time last year. This includes 71 expansions and 26 relocations/new market entrants. Of these projects, 56 are regional investments and 41 involve projects within city limits–including 10 South/West Side investments. PCDs are confirmed expansions, relocations, or new market entrants with at least 10 jobs or 10K square feet.
Chicagoland’s economy: Other notable updates
Growth Capital: Chicagoland startups raised $741.5 million in Q2 2026 across 130 deals, down 69% from Q2 2025. Healthcare led the quarter in capital raised, with 39% of disclosed capital raised across 23 deals, and AI & ML continues to be a defining theme, with 24 deals in that space. Top deals include Zarminali Pediatrics ($110M, Series A, healthcare services), Professional Women’s Hockey League ($100M, early stage VC, sports), and Loop ($95M, Series C, fintech). Several investors appeared across deals, including Illinois Ventures, Index Ventures, Hyde Park Venture Partners, GreatPoint Ventures, PEAK6 Strategic Capital, and Altitude Ventures.
New Private Residential Permits (MSA) and Chicago of Chicago Building Permits: There were 6,181 new residential building permits authorized through May of 2026 – representing a 1.0% decrease when compared to the same period last year. In the city of Chicago, there were 5,319 new construction or renovation/alteration building permits applied for in the last rolling 12-month period (7/1/25-6/30/26) – representing a -25.3% drop when compared to the prior rolling 12-month period.
ISM Business Barometer: The Business Barometer – a survey of supply chain professionals in the Chicagoland area cooled 6.0 points to 56.7 in June. The Barometer remained in expansionary territory for a second consecutive month. The fall was driven by declines in New Orders and Production, while rises in Supplier Deliveries, Order Backlogs and Employment provided some offset. Read report for full details here.
In May, the Business Barometer asked: “What is the expected timeline for global supply chain recovery following the resolution of the Iran conflict, and which of the following scenarios best reflects your outlook for a full recovery period? ” Responses were: 41% “Unknown/unable to determine at this time,” 25% “7-12 months,” 19% ”3-6 months,” 13% “2 months or less,” 3% “Other.”
View the Chicagoland Economic Dashboard July 2026 edition here! • July 2026