View the Chicagoland Economic Dashboard June 2026 edition here! • June 2026
Chicagoland’s economy: what to know in June 2026
Trending Upwards: Chicagoland’s economy continues to show signs of resilience. Output is projected to reach $963 billion in Q2 2026, up 0.8% QoQ. The Chicago Business Barometer surged 13.5 points to 62.7 in May, returning to expansionary territory and reaching its highest level since January 2022. Regional residential construction is a somewhat bright spot, with 5,213 new housing permits authorized through April – up 19.7% YoY. Trade activity through O’Hare also rebounded sharply, rising to $31.9 billion in March from $26.2 billion in February. Pro-Chicagoland Decisions are ahead of last year’s pace.
Trending Downwards: Employment declined modestly in April to 4.68 million and unemployment remains elevated at 4.9%, the highest among compared metros. Growth capital investment has softened, with Chicagoland startups raising $669 million in Q1 2026, down 36% from a year ago. Commercial real estate fundamentals remain mixed, with office vacancy rates increasing in both downtown and suburban markets. Chicagoland remains 17th for new residential housing permits authorized, and construction permits in the city of Chicago are about a quarter below last year.
U.S. Macroeconomics Update:
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above expectations of roughly 80,000–85,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Upward revisions added an additional 93,000 jobs to March and April payroll figures, reinforcing signs of labor market resilience. Job gains were concentrated in leisure and hospitality, local government, and healthcare, while employment in financial activities declined.
Inflation accelerated in March, with headline CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year, the highest reading since May 2024, while the Fed’s preferred PCE measure increased to 3.5% headline and 3.2% core, reflecting continued inflationary pressure. Real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, driven by strong private investment, including continued spending on AIrelated infrastructure and equipment. The combination of resilient job growth and elevated inflation has reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts and increased attention on the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook.
Chicagoland’s economy: Key macroeconomic metrics
Output: Chicagoland’s output for Q2 2026 was projected by Moody’s Analytics to be $963 billion, up 0.8% from Q1 2026. All four of the comparison metro areas are also projected to experience a modest increase in output over the previous quarter.
Employment: According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment for the Chicago metro area decreased by 1.1% to 4.681M from March 2026. This is on par with slight employment declines in New York, Los Angeles, and Houston. Employment decreased modestly in all counties between March and April 2026.
Unemployment: Chicagoland’s unemployment rate in April 2026 declined slightly to 4.9%, with similar patterns seen among most regional counties. Unemployment in the Chicago metro is still the highest among its peers. There are 16,275 more unemployed people today than there were at this time last year.
Job Postings: Chicagoland saw little growth in active job postings between April and May 2026, staying around 225,000. Legal and Food Preparation and Serving occupations saw large increases in job postings (10% and 6% respectively), while Protecting Service and Military occupations saw the largest dip in postings (10% and 15%) between March and April. Job postings growth is mixed among the city of Chicago and all collar counties, with the city, Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will counties all seeing slight growth in postings.
Pro-Chicagoland Decisions: In 2026 thus far, there have been 76 Pro-Chicagoland decisions, which is more compared to 2025 year-to-date. This includes 57 expansions and 19 relocations/new market entrants. Of these projects, 46 are regional investments and 30 involve projects within city limits–including 7 South/West Side investments. PCDs are confirmed expansions, relocations, or new market entrants with at least 10 jobs or 10K square feet.
Chicagoland’s economy: Other notable updates
New Private Residential Permits: There were 5,213 new residential building permits authorized through April of 2026 – representing a 19.7% increase when compared to the same period last year.
City of Chicago Building Permits: There were 5,348 new construction or renovation/alteration building permits applied for in the last rolling 12-month period (6/1/25-5/31/26) – representing a -25.5% drop when compared to the prior rolling 12-month period.
Trade: Trade value for O'Hare International Airport saw an increase to $31.9 billion in March 2026 from $26.2 billion in February 2026. As of March 2026, it is the third largest port by value following Port Laredo ($34.3 billion) and JFK Airport ($34.2 billion).
Chicago Fed Survey: The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Activity Index decreased to +12 in May from +20 in April, suggesting that economic growth softened but remained above trend.
ISM Business Barometer: The Business Barometer – a survey of supply chain professionals in the Chicagoland area climbed 13.5 points to 62.7 in May. The Barometer is now at its highest since January 2022, and back in expansionary territory after one month below the neutral 50 mark. This was the joint second largest monthly increase in the Barometer since its inception in February 1967 (only July 2020 saw a bigger monthly jump). The rise was driven by increases in New Orders, Production, Order Backlogs and Supplier Deliveries. A decline in Employment provided some marginal offset. Read report for full details here.
In May, the Business Barometer asked: “In today’s environment of geopolitical instability, supply chain disruption, and rapidly shifting consumer demand, what steps is your organization taking to remain resilient and responsive? ” Responses were: 54% “Diversifying supplier base and sourcing regions to reduce geopolitical risk,” 54% “Strengthening supplier collaboration and real-time visibility across the supply chain,” 50% ”Increasing inventory buffers or nearshoring production to improve delivery reliability,” 31% “Leveraging data analytics and AAI for demand forecasting and scenario planning,” 15% “Adapting product mix, pricing, or channels to align with changing consumer demand,” 4% “Other.”
View the Chicagoland Economic Dashboard June 2026 edition here! • June 2026